¡Yo Soy El Niño!

The Blog

Analysis of the developing 2026–27 El Niño, read directly from the NOAA source files. Written and meteorologically reviewed by Christopher W. Corwin, B.S. Meteorology.

What This Archive Is

Every post below is written against primary agency data, chiefly NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and is dated so you can tell how current it is. The site's editorial line is simple: no doom, no hype, just NOAA numbers. In practice that means naming which index a figure comes from, distinguishing an observation from a forecast, and attaching a falsifiable test to any claim worth making.

Posts fall into four recurring formats:

Articles are drafted with AI research assistance and reviewed before publication, which is disclosed on each piece. How sources are ranked, how data vintage is labelled and how errors get fixed is set out in the editorial standards, and published corrections are listed in the corrections log.

Reference Table
📊 ENSO Historical Event Table: Every El Niño & La Niña Since 1950
A complete, regularly updated reference classifying every event by strength using NOAA's ONI/RONI methodology. Bookmark this one.
Updated each season
Methodology
⚙️ How the Teleconnection Analog Engine Works
What the analog scoring on the dashboard actually computes, which features it weights, and where its limits are. Read this before citing an analog score.
Reference · methodology
New · Synthesis Food Security
The Next Food Crisis Will Not Have One Cause
WFP projects acute food insecurity across 45 vulnerable countries rising to 274 million by end-2027. FAO forecasts world cereal stocks rising, stock-to-use at 32 percent. Both are true, and the funding that turns available supply into food on plates has fallen 59 percent since 2022.
August 24, 2026 · 14 min read
New · Reading the Numbers Forecast Systems
A 3°C El Niño Is Now in the Forecast. Don’t Compare It With NOAA’s +2.5.
The Met Office says GloSea is forecasting Niño 3.4 above 3°C and calls the signal unprecedented. NOAA gives 69% odds of RONI at +2.5°C. Same ocean box, different index, different baseline, and one is a forecast while the other is a threshold.
August 22, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Forecasts Into Decisions Shipping
The Panama Canal Just Crossed From Cargo Limits to Traffic Limits
Advisory A-29-2026 cuts daily transit slots to 34 from 4 September and 32 from 15 September, citing watershed inflows 44% below average. On 22 July this site named exactly that move as the escalation to watch, and the same advisory postpones two deeper draft cuts.
August 21, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Market Check Commodities
Cocoa Rebounded Sharply. That Still Isn’t Proof of an El Niño Crop Loss.
Cocoa recovered about two-thirds of its July slide by 19 August, but no 2026/27 crop loss has been measured and the projected global balance is still a surplus. Wheat’s 17 percent rise since early July is a Black Sea logistics story, not a weather one. Where the evidence changes from forecast, to weather, to crop loss, to deficit, to grocery price.
August 20, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Regional Impact Peru
Dry-Season Rain Closed the Inca Trail. DANA Aníbal Was the Immediate Trigger.
Cusco’s culture authority shut the Machu Picchu trail network from 19 August after landslides, flooded campsites and damaged footbridges, while INDECI logged two rivers overflowing in the district. SENAMHI identified a cutoff low as the immediate system; El Niño’s contribution to this particular rainfall remains unresolved.
August 19, 2026 · 6 min read
New · Analysis Indonesia
Indonesia Burned Nearly as Much Land in July as in the Previous Six Months
About 94,500 hectares burned in July alone against 107,465 across January through June. But in the three years the government compared 2026 to, roughly three-quarters to more than 90 percent of the annual burn arrived after July — and one of those years was not an active El Niño fire season at all.
August 19, 2026 · 10 min read
New · Analysis Index Discipline
China Says 2026 Could Be the Strongest El Niño on Record. NOAA Says 69%.
China reported +2.09°C for July, NOAA +1.4°C for Niño 3.4. Both agencies headline a +2.5°C threshold, but in China’s system it is the boundary of the top category, which past events already exceeded, while in NOAA’s it would beat every event since 1950.
August 18, 2026 · 10 min read
New · Research Watch Sea Level
Two Strong El Niños Raised the Ocean Differently. The 2026 Event Offers the Next Comparison.
A JGR: Oceans paper finds the interannual sea-level response to the 2014-16 and 2023-24 El Niños was dominated by water moving off land, not by ocean warming. The mass totals were nearly identical; the durations, regions and thermal fingerprints were not.
August 17, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Analysis Hurricane Season
As Lala Threatens Hawaii, El Niño’s Other Hurricane Signal Comes Into View
NOAA forecasts a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season and a 70% chance of an above-normal eastern Pacific one, citing the same El Niño. The mechanism is not one lever flipped both ways, and no seasonal outlook explains any individual storm.
August 16, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Explainer Terminology
“Super El Niño” Is Not an Official WMO or NOAA Category. Here’s What They Actually Call It.
WMO states the term is not part of its operational classification. CPC uses weak, moderate, strong and very strong, with very strong meaning RONI at or above +2.0°C and open-ended above that. Why a threshold quoted without its index cannot be checked.
August 15, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Market Watch Edition 3
Market Watch, Edition 3: The El Niño Signal Hit 95%. Here’s Why WASDE Didn’t Mention It.
CPC put the October-December very strong probability at 95%, with a separate 69% chance of a historic event. USDA's supply and demand report, out the day before, described observed weather in five regions without naming a driver behind any of it. Different mandates, different clocks.
August 14, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Data Watch CPC Update
A 69% Chance of “Historic.” The +2.6 You Remember Is the Wrong Index.
CPC's 13 August discussion defines a historic El Niño as +2.5°C on the three-month RONI in October to December and gives it 69% odds. On that index the OND record is +2.25°C and the all-season high is +2.40°C, and the ranking of the three biggest events reverses between RONI and ONI.
August 13, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Impacts Watch Edition 1
Impacts Watch, Edition 1: Where El Niño Is and Is Not Showing Up
A new Sunday series. Three of eight regions were more than 20 percent below their June baselines, FEWS NET projects Crisis outcomes from October, and most of the region's food-security caseload is conflict rather than weather.
August 9, 2026 · 11 min read
New · Data Watch CHIRPS · Repair
One Line of Date Parsing Made Every Region Look Normal
A guard clause that could never be false made our parser read the day as the month. The climatology collapsed to a single earlier day. Here is the bug, the fix we nearly shipped that would have emptied the feed, and the before-and-after.
August 9, 2026 · 10 min read
New · Correction Drought · FEWS NET
We Sent a Drought Alert With Numbers We Cannot Support
Seven regional drought percentages went to subscribers. Every one was a rung on a hard-coded ladder keyed to a single Pacific index, with no rainfall data in the calculation. The retraction, and what the evidence actually shows.
August 7, 2026 · 12 min read
New · Data Watch Subsurface · PMEL
Pacific Warm-Water Volume Just Reached Its Third-Highest Month Since 1980.
CPC names a downwelling Kelvin wave. The basin-wide recharge measurement underneath it hit +3.00 ×1014 m³ in June, behind only April and June 1997. What it does and does not predict.
August 6, 2026 · 10 min read
New · Forecast Verification CPC · RONI
CPC Went Six for Six. Two Outcomes Barely Stayed in the Winning Bin.
Scoring CPC's April, May and June strength outlooks against published RONI gives six pairs, and CPC named the right category in all six. The six pairs are only three distinct outcomes, and two of them finished within 0.02°C of a bin edge.
August 6, 2026 · 10 min read
New · Regional Impact Indonesia
Indonesia Is Acting Before the Peak: 5,019 Hotspots and 17 Cloud-Seeding Runs
BMKG reports 5,019 fire hotspots as of July 29 and 54.5 percent of Indonesia's land area already in dry season, with the peak forecast for August. Three percentages are being confused in the coverage, and prevention has a measurement problem.
August 3, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Science Explainer Galápagos
Galápagos Marine Iguanas Shrink Their Own Skeletons. Niño 1+2 Is at +3.0°C.
The relative Niño 1+2 anomaly hit +3.0°C in the week centered July 22, 1.6°C above the benchmark Niño 3.4 and the widest gap in twelve weeks. Galápagos sits in the eastern box, and the peer-reviewed record on what happens there is stranger, and grimmer, than the viral version.
August 2, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Market Watch Edition 2
The Signal Strengthened. Cocoa Fell 21 Percent.
The ocean signal firmed, Ghana's regulator forecast a 16 percent output fall, and visible stocks drew down from their mid-July high. All bullish. Cocoa fell 21 percent from its July 9 peak anyway.
August 1, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Media Watch Atlantic
The Atlantic Niña Is a Forecast, Not a Shield
The convention for an Atlantic Niña is an ATL3 anomaly at or below -0.5°C across two consecutive seasons, and no pair has closed. A conditional forecast became a flat fact in 48 hours, then an "atmospheric shield." Six days later Bertha made landfall in Louisiana.
August 1, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Media Watch Economics
The $10 Trillion Number: What It Measures and What It Assumes
On July 23, Nature reported Justin Mankin's estimate that this El Niño could cause "$10 trillion in economic losses by 2032." The same framework yields $3.1 trillion in the Peterson Institute's hands. It measures foregone growth rather than damage, and it rides on a forecast peak that has not verified.
July 31, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Data Watch Index Definitions
One Ocean, Two Numbers: Why CPC Says +1.1°C and IRI Says +1.7°C
For the week centered 17 June, CPC's relative Niño 3.4 read +1.1°C while IRI's traditional Niño 3.4 read +1.7°C. Same week, same box, same baseline, and the 0.6°C between them is the reason "strongest ever" is a 91% claim in one index and a 77% claim in the other.
July 30, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Data Watch MJO
The Accelerator Let Off: The MJO Went Quiet as El Niño's Critical Window Opened
MJO amplitude fell from 1.31 on 9 July to 0.33 on 24 July and last cleared the active threshold ten days ago. CPC forecast the disorganization in advance, and its 27 July update expects the signal to rebuild. What a weak MJO removes from El Niño's intensification window, the cyclone that was inflating the index, and why it is a lull rather than a reversal.
July 29, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Data Watch ENSO Analysis
Three Degrees Off Peru, Cooling Near the Dateline: El Niño's Shape Is Changing
Niño 1+2 hit +3.0°C and Niño 3 reached +1.8°C in the week centered July 22, while Niño 3.4 held at +1.4°C and Niño 4 fell to +0.3°C. The east-west contrast is widening. What the shape of an El Niño tells you, the atmospheric and subsurface evidence beside it, and four reasons not to over-read it.
July 29, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Media Watch Global Temperature
A Month Is Not a Threshold: What Crossing 2°C Would and Wouldn't Mean
Reporting says El Niño could push one month past 2°C of warming for the first time, with 35 to 40 percent odds in early 2027. A real possibility, and not a Paris breach. The arithmetic, the lag, the dataset problem, and the two very different numbers this coverage keeps setting side by side.
July 27, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Seasonal Outlook Hurricane Watch
Bertha Is the Asterisk: A Suppressed Hurricane Season Still Made Landfall Twice
El Niño shear has the Atlantic forecast down to nine storms, and the season's second one still peaked at 60 mph and hit the Gulf Coast twice. Why both things are true at once, the wind shear numbers behind the forecast cuts, and the Niño 3.4 figure the coverage keeps getting wrong.
July 26, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Impact Flood Watch
Rain Where It Shouldn't Fall: El Niño and Chile's Deadly Winter Floods
A weeklong frontal system has killed at least 13 people, cut off more than 100,000, and dropped rare rain on Chile's arid north. What the El Niño teleconnection actually does, why 15 years of megadrought made it worse, and where single-storm attribution ends.
July 24, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Markets Food & Energy
The Anchovy and the Smelter: One El Niño Supply Shock, and One Power Risk
Peru cut its first-season anchovy quota 36 percent and repeatedly suspended fishing. Hydro-dependent aluminum smelters face a clearly defined exposure if El Niño suppresses rainfall. One climate driver, two distinct physical pathways. Educational, not a trade call.
July 23, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Forecasts Into Decisions Shipping
Panama Cuts the Draft, Not the Traffic: El Niño's First Move on Global Shipping
The Panama Canal Authority has begun a three-step reduction in maximum Neopanamax draft on the strength of an El Niño forecast, with cuts scheduled for July 24 and August 15. What a draft cut actually does, why it is not a repeat of 2023-24, and the escalation that would change that.
July 22, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Impact Drought Watch
Nine Regions, One El Niño: Where the Drought Risk Is Real, and Where the Rain Is Still Falling
The drought map is red, but the rain gauges are split. A region-by-region read on El Niño drought risk versus what CHIRPS actually shows, from Brazil's Nordeste to India, with the catastrophic 1876-79 Great Drought as calibrated context and a plain rule: risk is not outcome.
July 21, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Science Explainer Models
The Machines That Call El Niño: How ENSO Forecast Models Work, and Which Ones to Trust
How El Niño prediction actually works: dynamical versus statistical models, the historic Zebiak-Cane model, which systems have the best track record, and what a multi-model plume can and cannot promise. Plus what one independent 14-model synthesis says about 2026.
July 21, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Science Explainer ENSO Analysis
The Atmosphere Is Answering: Reading El Niño's Deepening Southern Oscillation Index
Sea surface temperature is only half of El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index is the atmospheric half, and as of July 20 the 30-day value sits at -27.87, far below the -7 threshold. Here is what that number does, and does not, tell you about how strong 2026's event will get.
July 20, 2026 · 6 min read
New · Media Watch Regional Impact
"Godzilla El Niño" Is a Nickname, Not a Forecast: What Indonesia's Fire Numbers Actually Show
Indonesia's fire season started early and a scary nickname is spreading faster than the smoke. The no-hype version: where "Godzilla" came from, the burned-area and hotspot numbers that are actually measurable, and why a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole is the key variable to watch.
July 19, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Impact ENSO Analysis
Coral Bleaching, Round Five? What NOAA's Numbers Say About Florida's Reefs Right Now
Florida's reefs are already bleaching in mid-July, NOAA Coral Reef Watch has Alert Level 1 posted for the Florida Keys, and a strengthening El Niño is loading the dice. The falsifiable version, anchored on the degree heating week numbers that will confirm or refute a severe season.
July 18, 2026 · 6 min read
New · Market Watch Weekly Roundup
El Niño Market Watch: What Moved This Week, July 17
Edition 1 of our Friday commodity roundup. Cocoa and coffee climbed, sugar eased anyway, Australia forecast wheat production 26 percent below last season, and Peru's anchovy fleet is still tied up with IFFO-reported fishmeal output down 26 percent. What's priced in, what's actual, and what to watch.
July 17, 2026 · 8 min read
New · Analysis Energy Meets ENSO
Two Shocks, One Fuel Tank: Where the Diesel Crunch Meets El Niño
Diesel is up 58 percent, jet fuel 106 percent, and a very strong El Niño is forecast for the same months. Farming runs on diesel, so here's the intersection: irrigation pumps, hydropower, shipping, fertilizer. Built only from numbers nobody's press office controls.
July 15, 2026 · 9 min read
New · Food Security Markets
Rice Is the El Niño Crop: The 20-to-50 Percent Warning, Read Carefully
The World Bank's rice output warning is making headlines this week. The number is real, but conditional, and the last El Niño showed the biggest price risk is policy, not weather. Here's the careful read.
July 15, 2026 · 7 min read
New · News Forecasts Into Decisions
The $100 Million Forecast: The UN Is Moving Money Before This El Niño Peaks
The UN said Monday it is ready to release up to $100 million from its emergency fund on the strength of the El Niño forecast, with $20 million already out the door. Here are the NOAA numbers behind that bet, and the fine print that comes with them.
July 13, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Impact ENSO Analysis
El Niño's Home Turf: What Already Happened in Peru
While the world debates the winter forecast, Peru has already endured deadly flooding and a fatal flood-rescue helicopter crash. Lima's record summer heat and a suspended anchovy fishery round out what's measured, not modeled.
July 11, 2026 · 7 min read
New · News Seasonal Outlook
CSU Forecasts Quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in Over a Decade
9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major, if it verifies. El Niño-driven wind shear is the primary reason. Tropical Storm Arthur already proved a quiet forecast isn't a safe one.
July 11, 2026 · 6 min read
Media Watch ENSO Analysis
From CPC Bulletin to "Strongest in 75 Years": How Fast the Headline Traveled
An 81 percent probability turned into a near-certain headline in under a day. We traced the CPC bulletin through its syndication chain, plus what's already showing up in real-world data and decisions.
July 10, 2026 · 7 min read
Data Watch ENSO Analysis
Strongest in 75 Years? What NOAA's July Update Actually Says
CPC's July 9 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion puts an 81 percent chance on a "very strong" El Niño by winter, and Bloomberg's already calling it the strongest in 75 years. Here's the discussion itself, numbers first, before the headline gets ahead of the data.
July 9, 2026 · 6 min read
Regional Impact ENSO Analysis
The Dry Ledger: Australia's Drought and Bushfire Risk as El Niño Builds
BOM made it official on June 16. The Murray-Darling Basin is already down to 46 percent capacity, and winter fire potential is elevated in parts of NSW. Here's the honest version, including the caveat CSIRO insists on: El Niño raises the odds, it doesn't decide the season.
July 8, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Impact ENSO Analysis
The Monsoon's El Niño Problem: India's Fifth-Driest June Since 1901 and What Comes Next
India just posted a nationwide rainfall deficit of 39.8 percent for June, the fifth driest since 1901. IMD is calling for another below normal month in July. Here's the honest, sourced case for why El Niño is a plausible driver, and why the usual offset isn't showing up this year.
July 7, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Science Explainer ENSO Analysis
The Wind Burst That Sealed the Deal: How Three Cyclones Supercharged 2026's El Niño
A rare triple-cyclone setup in April drove what one atmospheric scientist called the strongest westerly wind burst in over 50 years. Here's the mechanism, and why it echoes 1997 and 2015.
July 5, 2026 · 7 min read
Science Explainer MJO
Deep Dive: How the MJO Steers El Niño
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can fire westerly wind bursts that push warm water east and launch downwelling Kelvin waves. How the two patterns interact, and why an active MJO in the right phase loads the dice.
Explainer · MJO & ENSO
Data Watch RONI
RONI vs Reality: What the Relative Index Is Actually Telling Us
The relative index strips background ocean warming out of the Niño 3.4 signal, and it tells a more measured story than the raw numbers. Where the two diverge in 2026, and which one belongs in a headline.
Analysis · RONI
Markets Food & Energy
El Niño and Your Grocery Bill: Which Commodities Actually Pass Through
Not every commodity spike reaches the checkout. Which El Niño-sensitive crops actually move retail food prices, which get absorbed upstream, and how long the lag usually runs.
Analysis · Markets
ENSO Analysis Reference
El Niño 2026: Where Things Stand
A standing overview of the developing event: what the indices show, what the forecasts say, and what has actually been observed rather than projected.
Overview · ENSO
New · Reference
🌐 Earth's Climate Teleconnections: The Complete 2026 Reference Catalog
Every recognized atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection pattern (ENSO, MJO, IOD, QBO, PDO, SAM, and two dozen more) with mechanism, index, timescale, impacts, and how each one couples with El Niño.
Published July 5, 2026 · Updated as indices change
New · Markets News
El Niño Markets to Watch: What's Already Being Priced In
No crop has failed yet. But cocoa futures already moved, and a handful of other commodities are one bad rainy season away from following. Here's what's priced in and what would confirm it.
July 3, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Regional Outlook US Impacts
What El Niño Actually Means for the US: A Region-by-Region Breakdown
The event is declared and strengthening. But most Americans won't feel it until November. Here's the honest regional breakdown of what to expect, when, and how confident the science actually is.
July 2, 2026 · 8 min read
Explainer
Kelvin Waves, Explained: The Hidden Pulse Driving El Niño
Long before Niño 3.4 crosses a threshold, the real action is happening hundreds of feet down. Here's how Kelvin waves work, and what the current one is doing.
July 1, 2026 · 6 min read
Attribution Explainer
El Niño Is Real and Strengthening. It Didn't Cause This Heat Wave.
A heat dome is baking the central and eastern US. El Niño was declared June 11 and is building fast. The two things are not the same story. Here's why that distinction matters.
June 30, 2026 · 7 min read
News Seasonal Outlook
Three Weeks Into Hurricane Season: El Niño Is Already Pressing on the Atlantic
The Advisory dropped June 11. Niño 3.4 has since climbed to +1.7°C. The Atlantic is quiet. El Niño is one reason why. Here's the mechanism, the caveats, and what to watch through August.
June 26, 2026 · 6 min read
ENSO Analysis Reference
The El Niño Ahead: Thresholds, Triggers, and Data Releases to Watch Through Winter 2026-27
Niño 3.4 is at +1.7°C and climbing. Here's every scheduled data release, threshold that matters, and global regional signal worth tracking as the 2026 El Niño builds toward its winter peak: U.S., Australia, East Africa, and India.
June 25, 2026 · 8 min read
ENSO Analysis Regional Outlook
The Other Ocean Is Watching: What a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Means for 2026
Everyone's tracking the Pacific. The WMO has flagged a second major climate pattern developing concurrently: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. It co-occurred in 1997–98. Here's what it amplifies, what it offsets, and what it means for this event.
June 24, 2026 · 6 min read
Data Watch ENSO Analysis
The Number Nobody's Talking About: Niño 1+2 Is Already at +2.4°C
The June 11 CPC data shows a 1.3°C gap between the far eastern Pacific and the Niño 3.4 benchmark. That gap is the east-based fingerprint, and it's the most informative signal in the current dataset.
June 23, 2026 · 7 min read
New · Analysis RONI
The Ocean vs. The Atmosphere: Why 2026's El Niño Could Surprise You Either Way
SST models scream record El Niño. RONI analogs say the atmospheric response, the part that actually drives your weather, may be more moderate. Here's the tension at the heart of the 2026 forecast.
June 22, 2026 · 7 min read
ENSO Analysis
Is This Going to Be a "Super El Niño"? What the Data Actually Shows
NOAA, ECMWF, and CSU models now point to a 60%+ chance of a "very strong" El Niño by winter 2026-27. Here's what the subsurface data, RONI readings, and model ensembles actually show.
June 21, 2026 · 7 min read
Explainer
What Is Subsurface Heat Content and Why It Predicts El Niño
Long before surface temperatures show a clear signal, the ocean is often already telegraphing what's coming several hundred feet down.
June 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: Midwest and Great Lakes
Milder and drier: the Midwest typically sees the opposite signal of the wetter southern tier pattern.
June 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Historical Analog
The 2015-16 El Niño vs. 2026: How Do They Compare?
2015-16 holds the record on ONI but not on RONI, where 1982-83 ranks ahead. Here's how its buildup compares to 2026, and why the index decides the answer.
June 19, 2026 · 6 min read
News
How El Niño Is Already Suppressing the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA and CSU have both cut their hurricane forecasts, citing El Niño wind shear. Here's the mechanism.
June 18, 2026 · 5 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: Texas and the Southern Plains
After several La Niña-driven drought winters, a strong El Niño points toward real relief.
June 17, 2026 · 5 min read
Explainer
What Is the MJO and Why It Matters for El Niño
A tropical pattern that can accelerate or stall El Niño development. Here's the short version.
June 16, 2026 · 5 min read
Historical Analog
The 1997-98 Super El Niño: A Refresher
The benchmark every 'Super El Niño' comparison gets measured against, including 2026.
June 15, 2026 · 6 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: What California Can Expect in 2026-27
California has the clearest, most reliable El Niño signal of any U.S. region.
June 14, 2026 · 6 min read
News
NASA's Sea Level Data Shows 2026 Tracking Like 1997 Here's the Catch
Sentinel-6 shows a western Pacific pattern resembling 1997, but the eastern Pacific is lagging.
June 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Explainer
RONI vs ONI: Why NOAA Changed How El Niño Is Measured
NOAA switched its primary ENSO index in February 2026. Here's exactly what changed, and why.
June 12, 2026 · 6 min read