Axios reported that nearly 86% of Colorado is in drought and that a powerful El Niño has raised snow hopes. That figure matches the 22 September map, the latest then available; the next map has 82.3%. El Niño's snow signal is real in the southern mountains and weak elsewhere, and a good winter would start from a deep hole.
Axios Denver reported on 28 September that nearly 86% of Colorado is in drought and that a forecast very strong El Niño has raised hopes for a snowier winter. Axios's "nearly 86%" matches the 22 September U.S. Drought Monitor map's 85.7% of the state in moderate drought or worse, the latest map available when its article appeared. Axios did not identify the map date. A subsequent map, valid 29 September and released 1 October, puts the share at 82.3%. This piece uses the newer map, then asks what a snowy winter could and could not repair.
The short answer: a snowy winter would help a great deal, and the odds tilt modestly toward more snow in the southern Colorado mountains. For the state as a whole the El Niño signal is weak, and the three previous super El Niño winters gave one very snowy year and two roughly average ones. The deficits that built up in 2026 are in snowpack, runoff and reservoir storage, and the Drought Monitor weighs all of them. A good winter could begin substantial recovery without restoring every part of the water system.
The U.S. Drought Monitor publishes a Colorado table every Thursday, with the map valid the Tuesday before. The table released 1 October 2026 gives the percent of the state in each category for five dates. In the latest map, 82.3% of Colorado is in drought (D1 or worse), down from 85.7% a week earlier, and 35.0% is in extreme or exceptional drought, down from 38.5%. Exceptional drought (D4) covers 10.0% of the state, down from 13.4%. Only 8.9% of the state has no drought or abnormal dryness, up from 6.5%. Kiowa County Press reported the 22 September map as 38% in extreme or exceptional drought, down from 44% the week before, consistent with the table's "last week" row (38.5%).
Compare that with where the water year began. The table's start-of-water-year row (30 September 2025) had 45.2% of Colorado in drought and 45.8% with none, and the 3-month row (about 30 June 2026) had 93.0%. The state is somewhat better than in early summer and far worse than a year ago. This piece did not trace what caused the latest one-week improvement.
| USDM map | D1 or worse | D3 or worse | D4 only | No drought or dryness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 (start of water year) | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 45.8% |
| Start of 2026 (calendar year) | 46.2% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 26.0% |
| ~30 Jun 2026 (3 months before) | 93.0% | 39.2% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 22 Sep 2026 (last week) | 85.7% | 38.5% | 13.4% | 6.5% |
| 29 Sep 2026 (latest map) | 82.3% | 35.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
The Drought Monitor is a weekly judgment, not an average of one measurement. Its authors weigh precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health, and look for where the evidence converges. That matters for the question, because snowfall is one input and reservoirs and streamflow respond to it later.
The Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University (CSU) wrote on 3 September that Colorado is generally wetter in El Niño years, especially in fall and spring, but that the link to peak seasonal snowpack is weak. The southern basins, the San Juan and the Rio Grande, show a loose positive correlation. The center's three "super" El Niños, defined as sea surface temperature anomalies of +2.0°C or higher (the passage I read does not name the index), are 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16. It says the first brought huge snowfall and the other two roughly average conditions, and cautions that firm conclusions from three events are unreliable.
State climatologist Russ Schumacher made the same split in September remarks reported by Colorado Politics: no relationship between El Niño and winter precipitation for the northern mountains, a relationship for the southern mountains, and no case of a bad snow drought in a strong El Niño. He told Colorado Public Radio that El Niño says little about Colorado snow as a whole, because the state sits in a weak spot of its influence, and that it is not something to bet heavily on. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers describe a historical snowfall increase in the Southern Rockies, including Colorado, in strong El Niño winters. They add that six seasonal models agree more on temperature than on precipitation, that the models disagree substantially over Colorado and neighboring states, and that the winter there may be strongly shaped by other patterns and individual storm tracks.
The three super winters do not make a clean rule. Denver's snowfall (the city, not the mountains that supply its water) was above its 56.6-inch long-term average (NWS Boulder, 1882 to 2025) in all three. The mountain picture was mixed. In April 2016, CU Boulder's Western Water Assessment reported near-normal snowpack in basins north of Interstate 70 and below-normal snowpack to the south, the reverse of the usual "south favored" tilt.
| Winter | Denver snowfall (in) | Versus 56.6 in long-term average | Colorado mountain snowpack, as described |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982/83 | 81.6 | +25.0 | Huge snowfall (CSU Colorado Climate Center) |
| 1997/98 | 72.1 | +15.5 | Roughly average (CSU) |
| 2015/16 | 72.8 | +16.2 | Roughly average (CSU); north of I-70 near normal and the south below normal in April (CU Boulder WWA) |
The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 17 September seasonal discussion raises wet odds over California and, later in spring, the Southwest. The text I read does not name Colorado, and this piece could not read the state's probability map, so the Colorado odds are best checked on the CPC site directly (link in Sources).
The 2026 snow season was extremely poor. NRCS reported statewide snowpack at 20% of median on 1 May, with peak snow water equivalent of 8.5 inches on 12 March, almost a month early and about half the typical amount. Every basin was at or below 34% of median, and the southern basins were lowest. NRCS's statewide 50 percent runoff outlook (the forecast with even odds of being exceeded) was 24% of median, with more than half of 80 forecast sites near record lows. By 1 June statewide snowpack was 14% of median, the third-lowest June snowpack on record after 2002 and 2012. NRCS put statewide reservoir storage at 75% of median on 1 June (85% on 1 May) and forecast Lake Powell's June to July inflow at 300,000 acre-feet, 9% of median.
Warmth made it worse. Schumacher told a legislative committee that the 2026 water year would be the warmest by a big margin, and Denver Water's Nathan Elder said its storage was second-lowest for the modern system back to the 1980s. Denver Water's own page on 28 September had its reservoirs 67% full against a 91% average, Stage 1 drought restrictions in place since 25 March, and a lawn watering ban starting 1 October. Denver Water says meaningful recovery depends on better fall moisture and, more importantly, a strong 2026-27 snow season.
Repair in the Drought Monitor sense needs improvement across several measures that move at different speeds: snowpack builds from November to March, runoff arrives in spring, reservoirs refill only when runoff exceeds use, and soils and vegetation respond to both. That sequence is this site's reading of how those inputs work, not a statement by the Drought Monitor or NRCS. It suggests a good winter would show up first in snowpack, while storage recovery depends on runoff, demand and operations.
CPC's 10 September ENSO discussion gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 75% chance of a historic event in October to December, which CPC defines as a three-month RONI value of +2.5°C or more and which would exceed every previous El Niño back to 1950. Axios reported better odds of a wetter and snowier winter than last season, with the southern mountains and the area east of the Continental Divide favored, and Colorado Public Radio reported that OpenSnow predicts above-normal snowfall for southern and eastern Colorado. Zack Wilson of the Colorado Snow Survey told CPR it is very likely that this winter will beat last winter.
That last claim is real and carries little information. Last winter's statewide snowpack peaked on 12 March at roughly half the typical peak. By 1 May, the remaining snowpack was just 20% of the median for that date. A winter at 60% of median would be a large improvement and would still leave a deep shortfall. The statements above describe tilted odds for part of the state, not a forecast of a normal snowpack, and not a forecast of drought relief. CPR also reported that Colorado's peak snowpack now comes around mid-March rather than early April, so the key months for answering this are November through March.
This extends our earlier pieces on California's preparation and on the low water baseline El Niño starts from, which listed Colorado basin snowpack from November as a watch item. For the national picture, see What El Niño Actually Means for the US and the data triggers we set in June.
The best supported statement is narrow. A strong El Niño makes a snowier winter somewhat more likely in the southern Colorado mountains, and a good winter could begin substantial recovery without restoring every part of the water system. The evidence does not show a statewide guarantee.