Governor Newsom’s 21 October release accuses the federal government of abandoning states, and cites no FEMA document. The agency’s own memos and administrator do document a shift toward state responsibility. What that means for California’s El Niño winter has not been announced.
FEMA’s own 22 September memo says guidance will follow on how the agency applies its role in helping disaster survivors “through greater state governance.” That supports the direction Governor Newsom describes in his 21 October release, which accuses the Trump administration of a disaster retreat and says FEMA is telling states they are on their own, while leaving implementation unresolved. The release cites no FEMA document. The day before, Administrator Cameron Hamilton had told state emergency managers that states must build reserves and capabilities to handle most disasters without federal help. That is the underlying communication, and it is narrower than the Governor’s account.
Our reading: an announced push toward greater state responsibility is documented. What assistance California will receive this winter is not, and the two stories should not be merged. We take no position on whether the shift is wise. This post sets out what each side has actually said.
The release was issued during California Flood Preparedness Week. It lists state preparations from the Department of Water Resources and Cal OES, and attributes its FEMA claims to the Governor: that FEMA is abandoning its mission and telling Americans to fend for themselves. It names no memo, speech, date or dollar figure for the federal side. It says El Niño often brings more frequent and intense storms over California while specific local impacts are unpredictable, which is the odds language the science supports. A 9 October release from the same office was more direct: El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter or any particular storm, but it heightens the risk of strong storms.
Politico reported on 20 October, from a recording obtained from someone at a private session, that Hamilton told the National Emergency Management Association’s conference in Little Rock that every state must have appropriate financial reserves, and capabilities so recovery can start immediately. He described a hoped-for future in which state capability is high enough that fewer federal disaster declarations are needed, said waiting for a federal declaration can slow recovery, said changes could begin in the next six months, that the administration plans a national mutual aid system among states, and that FEMA will ask to waive some federal environmental and historic preservation reviews. States already share personnel and equipment through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC), which links all 50 states, D.C. and several territories, and the reporting we read does not explain how the proposed national system would relate to it. Politico reports that FEMA did not immediately respond to a request for comment, that no changes to disaster aid have been publicly announced, and that the administration has continued approving aid.
| Source and date | What it says | What it does not say |
|---|---|---|
| Governor’s release, 21 Oct | The administration is telling states they are “on their own.” Newsom: “DROP DEAD.” | Names no FEMA document, date or official |
| Hamilton remarks, 20 Oct (Politico, from a recording) | States must have “appropriate financial reserves”; changes could begin “in the next six months”; national mutual aid planned | Nothing on California or El Niño. No FEMA comment. No aid change announced. |
| Hamilton memo, mid-Oct (The Hill, via TNND) | Reduce “unnecessary centralization in Washington, D.C.”; a direction to “reduce federal government dependency” | Does not explain what that entails |
| FEMA Region 9 release, 19 Oct (republished) | El Niño is strengthening; households should prepare, review flood insurance and follow state and local officials | Nothing on aid policy or state responsibility |
| FEMA framework memo, 22 Sept | Redefines emergency management; guidance on FEMA’s role through “greater state governance” to follow | No mention of declarations or reserves |
| FEMA Review Council report, 7 May (NLC summary) | Recommends state-managed response, possibly higher declaration thresholds, private flood insurance | A roadmap that changes no program by itself; parts need Congress |
FEMA’s 22 September memo, signed by Hamilton to all FEMA personnel, redefines emergency management and promises future guidance on how FEMA applies its role in helping survivors “through greater state governance.” It does not mention declarations or reserves. A mid-October memo, reported by The Hill, directs the agency to reduce centralization and federal dependency, without explaining how. An internal proposal dated 6 October, also reported by The Hill, suggested sunsetting or realigning several FEMA offices. FEMA did not respond to The Hill either. The May Review Council recommendations are a roadmap, and the National League of Cities notes that some would need Congress.
Put together, the Governor’s central claim, that the federal government intends to shift responsibility to states, is supported by FEMA’s own administrator. The phrase “on their own” is the Governor’s paraphrase and a news headline’s, and we did not find it in Hamilton’s quoted remarks. Hamilton’s remarks and memos say nothing about California or El Niño. The only FEMA communication on El Niño that we found is a 19 October Region 9 release, republished with an Oakland dateline, in which Regional Administrator Robert Fenton urges households to prepare and review flood insurance. It says nothing about aid policy.
California proclaimed its El Niño emergency on 21 September, as we covered in an earlier post, and announced its storm and flood preparations on 9 October. Both came before Hamilton’s 20 October speech, although the Review Council’s May report and Politico’s earlier reporting on the plan were public. That sequence does not rule out further preparation afterward. The Governor’s two releases report different supply totals.
| Reported flood-fighting supplies | Governor, 9 Oct (DWR supplies) | Governor, 21 Oct (Cal OES and DWR supplies) |
|---|---|---|
| Locations | 68 | 70 |
| Sandbags | 4.4 million | 6.2 million |
| Portable flood barriers | More than 52,000 feet | More than 52,000 feet |
| Rock for levee repairs | 400,000 tons | 400,000 tons |
| Levee miles scheduled for annual inspection | 1,600 | 1,600 |
The 9 October release describes supplies held by the Department of Water Resources. The 21 October release describes supplies positioned by Cal OES and DWR. The releases report different totals; whether they use comparable inventories is unconfirmed. The barrier, rock and levee figures are the same in both.
No source we read says California’s access to federal help changes this winter. Hamilton’s six months is a window for changes to begin, not a statement that any applies to winter storms. The El Niño outlook is separate: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 8 October that a strong to very strong event is likely through January to March 2027, and a strong event shifts the odds toward stormier conditions for California rather than guaranteeing a particular storm. Our California winter outlook covers the historical pattern, including why three strong events are not a large sample.
We could not hear the recording or read Politico on its own site, so Hamilton’s words come from its republication on Yahoo and are the reporter’s selection. The mid-October memo and the 6 October proposal come through The Hill and a syndicated summary. FEMA’s own press pages did not load for us, so the Region 9 release was read through two republications. We found no FEMA or DHS comment on the Governor’s release. We cannot say what a change in FEMA policy would do to any particular California storm response, how California’s reserves compare with what Hamilton described, how the proposed national mutual aid system relates to EMAC, or whether the two stockpile reports cover comparable inventories. The Governor’s characterizations, including the language about FEMA, are his.
Our reading. There are two stories here and the evidence differs for each. The federal story is a documented direction of travel, in Hamilton’s own words and memos, with timing and effect on disaster aid unannounced. The weather story is an elevated-odds winter that California is staging for regardless, and which began before the speech. The Governor’s release joins them in rhetoric. The record keeps them apart: The Region 9 El Niño release reviewed here addresses household preparedness and makes no announcement about disaster-aid eligibility. The El Niño forecast does not depend on who pays afterward.