Colorado State's July 8 update now calls for 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major, the fewest since 2014, if it verifies. El Niño-driven wind shear is the primary reason. Tropical Storm Arthur already proved a quiet forecast isn't a safe one.
We've flagged the hurricane-suppression mechanism twice already this season, once as an explainer in June, once folded into AccuWeather's forecast cut inside Wednesday's hype-cycle piece. Colorado State's own July update, released the same week, deserves its own look: the numbers moved further than AccuWeather's, and CSU's team attached a caveat worth taking seriously before anyone reads "quiet season" as "skip the prep." One note up front: everything below is a forecast, not an observed season. The season hasn't verified yet.
In its forecast update released July 8, Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team, led by senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, cut its 2026 Atlantic outlook to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger).
| Forecast | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major (Cat 3+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSU, July 8 update | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| 1991-2020 average | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| AccuWeather, July | 8-14 | — | — |
If it verifies, that would be five fewer named storms and three fewer hurricanes than the 1991-2020 average, the fewest Atlantic named storms since 2014, the fewest hurricanes since 2015, and the fewest Category 3-or-stronger hurricanes since the 2013 season failed to produce a single major.
This direction isn't unique to CSU. A separate mid-June outlook from Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company also favored a below-average season, landing in the same range via a different analog methodology.
A strengthening El Niño typically drives well above-normal vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, the Atlantic corridor stretching from near West Africa westward into the Caribbean where many long-track hurricanes develop, and can also favor a drier, more subsident atmospheric environment. Both are hostile to tropical cyclone organization, but CSU and other forecasters point to wind shear as the primary mechanism behind this year's cut, not a secondary factor among several.
That mechanism is already measurable. As of early July, Caribbean wind shear was reported as the second highest on record for that time of year, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry. CFS model guidance for August through October continues to show the same elevated-shear signal persisting across the main development region through the heart of the season.
Ocean heat, usually the other half of the hurricane-fuel story, is sending a mixed signal this year rather than reinforcing the shear signal. The stretch of Atlantic from West Africa to the Windward Islands is running near or slightly below average. The Gulf of Mexico shows record-warm surface temperatures for early July per NOAA Coral Reef Watch data, but somewhat cooler heat content below the surface than usual. CSU's Klotzbach described the overall ocean layout as giving "mixed signals" on the season, warm water alone doesn't override strong shear, but it means this isn't a clean, one-variable forecast.
Tropical Storm Arthur, in June, was weak and short-lived by wind-intensity standards. Its rain wasn't. Cottonport, Louisiana recorded 29.06 inches in 24 hours, a new statewide 24-hour rainfall record, surpassing the previous mark set by a tropical depression in 1962. New Orleans logged 7.75 inches on June 18, breaking that date's prior daily rainfall record of 1.74 inches, set in 1957.
A quiet seasonal forecast describes storm count. It says nothing about what a single, even weak, system can do to one city's rainfall records. In Atmospheric G2's separate set of seven historical El Niño-analog seasons, none produced more than one U.S. hurricane landfall, reassuring on the numbers, but one landfall is still a landfall, and Arthur showed you don't strictly need a hurricane at all.
August is normally when Atlantic activity climbs sharply; this year's Saharan dust and wind shear may keep the basin quiet into that window rather than just through early July. Whenever the next named storm (Bertha) forms, and how far into August we go without it, will be a reasonable read on whether CSU's cut is tracking or whether the basin finds ways to override the shear, the way the 2023 season did, when exceptional Atlantic warmth helped offset a similar El Niño signal.