Reference Table
📊 ENSO Historical Event Table: Every El Niño & La Niña Since 1950
A complete, regularly updated reference classifying every event by strength using NOAA's ONI/RONI methodology — bookmark this one.
Updated each season
ENSO Analysis
Is This Going to Be a "Super El Niño"? What the Data Actually Shows
NOAA, ECMWF, and CSU models now point to a 60%+ chance of a "very strong" El Niño by winter 2026-27. Here's what the subsurface data, RONI readings, and model ensembles actually show.
June 21, 2026 · 7 min read
Explainer
What Is Subsurface Heat Content and Why It Predicts El Niño
Long before surface temperatures show a clear signal, the ocean is often already telegraphing what's coming several hundred feet down.
June 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: Midwest and Great Lakes
Milder, drier — the Midwest typically sees the opposite signal of the wetter southern tier pattern.
June 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Historical Analog
The 2015-16 El Niño vs. 2026: How Do They Compare?
2015-16 holds the record for strongest El Niño since 1950. Here's how its buildup compares to 2026.
June 19, 2026 · 6 min read
News
How El Niño Is Already Suppressing the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA and CSU have both cut their hurricane forecasts, citing El Niño wind shear. Here's the mechanism.
June 18, 2026 · 5 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: Texas and the Southern Plains
After several La Niña-driven drought winters, a strong El Niño points toward real relief.
June 17, 2026 · 5 min read
Explainer
What Is the MJO and Why It Matters for El Niño
A tropical pattern that can accelerate or stall El Niño development. Here's the short version.
June 16, 2026 · 5 min read
Historical Analog
The 1997-98 Super El Niño: A Refresher
The benchmark every 'Super El Niño' comparison gets measured against — including 2026.
June 15, 2026 · 6 min read
Regional Outlook
El Niño Winter Outlook: What California Can Expect in 2026-27
California has the clearest, most reliable El Niño signal of any U.S. region.
June 14, 2026 · 6 min read
News
NASA's Sea Level Data Shows 2026 Tracking Like 1997 — Here's the Catch
Sentinel-6 shows a western Pacific pattern resembling 1997 — but the eastern Pacific is lagging.
June 13, 2026 · 5 min read
Explainer
RONI vs ONI: Why NOAA Changed How El Niño Is Measured
NOAA switched its primary ENSO index in February 2026. Here's exactly what changed and why.
June 12, 2026 · 6 min read